Recently, the Deputy Minister of Industry and Information Industry Xin Guobin said at the 2017 China Automotive Industry Development (Telda) International Forum: At present, the global automotive industry is accelerating the transition to intelligent and electrified, seizing a new round of commanding heights, and grasping industrial development trends and opportunities. , China has started the study of the shutdown timetable for the suspension of production of traditional energy vehicles. As soon as this news came out, the discussion on the fuel vehicle exploded at once. Of course, Longfei, as a media user, also received a lot of questions from netizens. One of the most discriminating users of mine asked: If the fuel vehicle is banned For sale, what about the fuel car in our hands? Yes, even though fuel vehicles have made considerable progress in recent years, with the rising sales of automobiles in our country, the environmental problems that arose as a result have also paved the way. Take Beijing, our capital, as an example. On September 4, the official Weibo of the Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Monitoring Center analyzed the causes of pollution in early September in Beijing: Beijing’s pollution process is affected by certain adverse meteorological conditions and regions, but more important It is due to local pollution emissions in Beijing. The high nitrate concentration in urban areas is the main reason for this pollution. Nitrate mainly comes from the secondary conversion of gaseous nitrogen oxides. The gaseous nitrogen oxides in non-heating season in Beijing mainly come from the emission of motor vehicles. The proportion of nitrate in the pollution process was high, reflecting the contribution of vehicle pollution under the condition of static stability and increasing trend. Although Beijing is a relatively congested city in the country, the pollution caused by the exhaust gas from fuel vehicles is not unreasonable. With the growth of population and the growth of car sales, it is inevitable that other cities will not experience Beijing in the future. Although the specific timetable has not yet appeared, due to environmental considerations, the elimination of fuel vehicles is a matter of time. In the paper “Analysis of Current Environmental Protection of China's New Energy Vehicle Industry—Based on Field Investigation and Quantitative Calculation Methodsâ€, the author compared the electric vehicles and gasoline vehicles with the same configuration but different power sources, and conducted an emission study. In comparison, it was found that electric vehicles can save more than two kilograms of coal per hundred kilometers compared with fuel vehicles. If both models calculate the emissions after driving 200,000 kilometers, electric vehicles can save 4195.2 kilograms of standard coal and reduce 10306.2 kilograms of carbon dioxide emissions. According to the standards of the World Bank in 2015, China's average annual CO2 emissions per person is 7.7 tons (7,700 kg). This means that after driving 200,000 kilometers, the carbon dioxide emissions that electric vehicles save are equivalent to an average of more than a year of carbon dioxide emissions from a Chinese. Although from the data point of view, new energy vehicles are actually less harmful to the environment than fuel vehicles, but due to the consideration of the entire automotive market, even if the current sales schedule is released, the fuel vehicles in the hands of users will not be able to immediately Eliminating, but the specific final and whereabouts still depends on the flexible adjustment of the entire automotive market. The new energy automobile market is immature and requires excessive fuel trucks Since entering the new century, China's auto industry has achieved rapid development. In 2016, its annual production and sales volume exceeded 28 million, ranking first in the world for eight consecutive years. The role of the auto market in the pillars of the national economy has continued to increase. Car taxation has accounted for the proportion of national tax revenue, and the number of employees has accounted for the proportion of the number of employed people in the country, and the proportion of auto sales to the total retail sales of goods in China has exceeded 10%. Although in the field of new energy vehicles, China has become the largest production and sales market, but subject to many factors, the current stage of new energy vehicles is not very mature. Take Tesla, a relatively mature electric car, as an example, it takes more than one hour to fully charge Tesla at the super charging station. This is a time-consuming and early-stage comparison with traditional refueling vehicles. The popularity of charging stations can be said to be much less than that of gas stations. However, Tesla recently introduced a robot that can replace batteries for electric vehicles. It is reported that this robot can allow the car to be fully charged within 15 minutes, helping the owner save time waiting for charging. The battery system that replaced the battery within 15 minutes is a new patent and will apply to Model S or Model X electric vehicles. In addition, Tesla also said that the invention of this robot can make the car uninterrupted on long-distance travel, without parking for charging. Of course, such a configuration will increase the price of Tesla, and at this stage, Tesla's price is still difficult for ordinary people to accept, and as far as other brands of electric vehicles are concerned at this stage, many still fail. To Tesla this level. Of course, according to the 2010 forecast of the International Energy Agency: By 2050, the composition of global automotive power will include fuel cells, pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, hybrids, natural gas, and gasoline and diesel. Looking at the international auto giants, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, Toyota, etc., the definition of new energy vehicles not only includes pure electric vehicles, but also includes plug-in hybrid, fuel cell vehicles, clean energy and other aspects. Although electric vehicles are unlikely to be the only new energy vehicles, electric vehicles are still relatively mature in the field of new energy vehicles. However, compared to the traditional fuel vehicle market, prices, brands, and maintenance and operation of the latter stage are more important. The aspect is still very poor, which requires the supporting facilities of the new energy vehicle market to gradually improve to meet the upgraded consumer demand, leading the consumer trend of new energy vehicles. Corporate strategy transfer to force the abort of the fuel vehicle When talking about this point of view, I first answered the question from that netizen. From the expression of Xin Guobin, in the future, it is necessary to suspend the sale of fuel vehicles instead of temporary fuel vehicles. Therefore, for users who purchase fuel vehicles, they can It is undoubtedly true that we continue to drive on a wide road. And judging from the countries that have already indicated that they want to ban the sale of fuel vehicles, the complete ban on fuel vehicles is still a long way off. For example, France banned the sale of fuel vehicles completely in 2040, while in Germany it was in 2030. Only Norway was more aggressive, setting the time point to 2025. However, as a car company, it is inevitable that the reform of the automotive market will be handled early, and it is inevitable to increase the investment in the new energy field. Of course, the market investment that will be matched for the traditional fuel sector will also be reduced. With the gradual reduction of vehicle investment, the price of fittings, maintenance costs, and maintenance time matching with fuel vehicles will gradually expand, which is undoubtedly an additional input for users. As the new energy automobile market becomes more and more mature, users' new energy vehicles will have more obvious advantages than traditional fuel vehicles. With the gradual increase in the number of new energy vehicles, follow-up related industry people will also upgrade and transform. When your fuel truck stands in the market of new energy vehicles with a "stand out" attitude, you are extremely proud or shameful, it is only you to measure! The state regulates and controls subsidies to stifle the vitality of fuel vehicles It is well known that from 2009 onwards, in order to accelerate the promotion of new energy vehicles, China has effectively subsidized new energy vehicles. Of course, effective subsidies have played an active role in promoting China to become the largest production and marketing country for new energy vehicles. With the increase in the scale of production and sales, financial pressures have increased, and the Ministry of Finance has made it clear that subsidies will be fully withdrawn after 2020. Although the Ministry of Finance will cancel the supply of new energy vehicles in 2020, it has provided a good start for the upgrade of the auto market. That is to say, since subsidies can be provided when promoting new energy vehicles, why can't we dismiss the fuel vehicles? When the user is also subsidized? Of course, only the new energy vehicles at this stage are not perfect in every respect. Compared to the traditional fuel vehicles, this is indeed a short board. Even if the current state subsidizes you to let you sell the fuel vehicles in your hand, I For future convenience, you still don't want to sell your fuel car. However, all this happened when the market for new energy vehicles was not enough. Once the car companies and the market are upgrading like new energy, the follow-up related industries will follow suit. At this time, I think users will definitely New energy vehicles are tempted to believe that if the state makes corresponding subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles and the elimination of fuel vehicles, I believe users will change their insistence on fuel vehicles. Of course, the reason why the fuel vehicle is not optimistic about the industry is that the automobile exhaust emissions cause environmental pollution. However, in view of the current mature electric vehicle market, after conversion to electricity, the thermal power supply system is the main power supply network. In China, pollution still exists. Moreover, in the manufacturing process of electric vehicles, only one battery will produce a lot of pollution. This is just like the original photovoltaic industry was criticized as the place of production of pollution and the use of land for enrichment. Changes in pollution, pollution patterns, and pollution content do not represent non-pollution, but require scientific justification. Just rely on imagination to judge the environmental protection of electric vehicles. This is just a stealing concept. Therefore, the future automobile market still has many challenges for the new energy field. For the automotive travel species, while diversifying the products, the sources of energy should also be diversified. As for the automotive companies, they should be based on different targets. In the development stage, appropriate technical routes are adopted so that new energy vehicles can fully exert their environmental advantages.
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