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In October, the overall prices of domestic chemical products experienced a slight decline, although some individual products saw price increases. According to market monitoring data from 36 large and medium-sized cities across the country, the average price of low-density polyethylene (film grade 1F7B) was 11,509 yuan per ton, marking a 0.76% monthly decrease and a 10.58% annual drop. The average price of wire drawing grade 2401 was 10,932 yuan, down 1.94% month-on-month but up 1.95% year-on-year. Polyvinyl chloride (suspension type) averaged 7,435 yuan, with a 2.44% decline from the previous quarter and a 18.3% drop compared to the same period last year.
Polyester chips (pellets) averaged 10,987 yuan, rising 2.54% month-on-month but falling 2.84% year-on-year. Fuel ethanol averaged 4,666 yuan, decreasing 1.09% from the prior month, but increasing 0.79% annually. Domestic 1# crude oil averaged 16,003 yuan, up 4.04% month-on-month and 17.47% year-on-year. Butadiene rubber averaged 14,934 yuan, with a 0.71% increase from the previous month and a 7.74% annual rise. Ethanol (98%) averaged 692 yuan, down 0.51% month-on-month but up 3.98% year-on-year. Soda ash (with ≥98.5% content) averaged 1,640 yuan, an increase of 0.95% from the previous month and 4.49% annually. Caustic soda (30% to 40% content) averaged 659 yuan, declining 1.42% month-on-month and 0.15% year-on-year.
The main factors driving these price changes in October include a drop in international oil prices, which reduced cost pressures for chemical producers, particularly petrochemical companies. This led to lower chemical product prices. Additionally, the continued decline in global oil prices created a cautious atmosphere in the chemical trading market, as middlemen and downstream companies were hesitant to take on price risks, leading to reduced trading volumes and further price declines.
Long-term high prices have also put pressure on downstream industries, causing a slowdown in demand. With most petrochemical products in China at their highest levels in over a decade, many companies are trying to cut costs by reducing chemical usage or lowering quality standards. Some have even turned to recycling materials to offset rising expenses.
On the other hand, the price increases in alternative products such as cotton and natural rubber have pushed up the prices of certain chemical products. For example, the global reduction in cotton production has led to higher cotton prices, which in turn has increased the cost of polyester chips. Similarly, the decline in natural rubber supply has driven up its price, supporting the price of synthetic rubber despite the drop in oil prices.
Looking ahead, it is expected that overall chemical product prices will continue to fall slightly, though not drastically. Some products may still see small price increases. First, the macroeconomic environment remains stable and growing, providing a favorable backdrop for the chemical industry. In the first three quarters of this year, China’s economy maintained steady growth, with GDP expanding by over 9%, exports rising nearly 28%, and imports increasing by about 18%. This strong economic performance supports continued demand for chemical products.
Second, falling oil and energy prices will likely contribute to lower chemical prices. Global oil demand has slowed, with U.S. demand even declining. China's crude oil and refined oil imports fell by 0.53% in the first three quarters of the year. International oil prices are expected to remain below $60 per barrel, and domestic raw material and energy costs have also declined significantly. This trend is likely to continue, pushing chemical prices downward.
However, certain products may still see slight price increases. For instance, the surge in automobile production and sales, especially in the first three quarters with a 17.7% growth in sedan output, could boost demand for rubber. With a projected decrease in rubber supply, prices may rise. Additionally, if cotton prices continue to climb, it could provide further support for polyester and other chemical products.