China's Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Aluminium branch secretary-general said recently that alumina production will remain slightly below the level of demand, and it is impossible for China's alumina to be exported.
By the end of 2005, China’s electrolytic aluminum production had been ranked first in the world for four consecutive years, alumina production was ranked second in the world for four consecutive years, and aluminum production was the second highest in the world for three consecutive years. The literature army stated that China’s aluminum industry is really big, but it is not strong. At present, China’s aluminum industry is at an important turning point.
First of all, the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum production fell, and the investment amount decreased year-on-year. In September, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 6.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, and the growth rate was 1.7% lower than the same period of last year; the investment in aluminum smelting completed was 19.7 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1 billion yuan or 5.9% year-on-year. Second, alumina production increased rapidly, spot prices fell rapidly, and foreign dependence declined. In the first nine months of this year, the production of alumina was 9.437 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 57%; the import of aluminum oxide was 5.26 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%, and the degree of foreign dependence fell from 45% to 36%. In addition, the export volume of electrolytic aluminum has also been significantly reduced, and exports of aluminum alloys and aluminum have grown rapidly. In the first nine months of this year, electrolytic aluminum exports reached 674,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 26.3%, while aluminum and aluminum exports were 289,000 tons and 867,000 tons, respectively, up 168.1% and 67.1% year-on-year respectively.
The literature army pointed out that the prediction of alumina production by 14 million tons in 2010 is obviously too low. In the coming years, alumina will develop in coordination with electrolytic aluminum. Even if there is a substantial increase in alumina production, it will not be able to export. If aluminum oxide exports occur, the association will recommend that relevant agencies use tariff measures at any time.

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