The world's most advanced humanoid robot "Atlas" recently made a high-profile appearance, developed by the US weapons contractor Boston Dynamics, which can replace military personnel to achieve military functions; and the US Congress stipulates that by 2015, one-third of the Ground combat will use robot soldiers. In the A-share market, a number of listed companies announced the latest developments in robot-related business in the following days: Qinchuan Development announced the investment in industrial robot reducer project, and Qianjiang Motorcycle Announced the government support for robot research and development. Due to multi-factor catalysis, the robotic sector has recently performed strongly.

Substituting artificial market space is huge

The large-scale use of robots in the industrial sector is mainly to replace labor and increase production efficiency. China has always been a large labor force, and a large number of low-end manufacturing industries rely on low-cost labor, but with the turning point of the demographic dividend, labor costs have gradually increased. At the same time, due to technical progress and large-scale production, the cost of robots has dropped by 5% annually. The substitution effect of robots on labor has been continuously revealed. The economic recovery cycle of replacing robots with robots has been shortened, which has pushed China's robot industry into an explosive growth stage.

In international comparison, the density of robot use is highly correlated with the strength of manufacturing technology. At present, the intensity of robot use in China is completely inconsistent with the characteristics of manufacturing power. In 2012, the density of use was only 21 units/10,000, which was lower than the international average of 55 units/10,000, and the manufacturing industry was stronger than Japan, Korea and Germany. There is a significant difference in the density of use.

In 2012, the sales volume of industrial robots in China exceeded 26,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%. According to the prediction of the International Robot Federation, with the upgrade of China's manufacturing industry, China will become the world's largest consumer of industrial robots by 2014; it is expected that by 2015, the demand for the Chinese robot market will reach 35,000 units, accounting for 16.9% of the global total. . The research report of Shenyin Wanguo is more optimistic. It is estimated that the potential total demand for domestic robots will be between 1.67 million and 3.76 million units. Compared with the current 80,000 units, there will be at least 10 times more space in the future.

Localization of robotic industry chain

80% of the market for industrial robots in China is occupied by international giants such as ABB, FANUC, Yaskawa and KUKA. In the business model, domestic enterprises mainly focus on system integrators, unit products are outsourced or OEM, and provide turnkey projects for customers. At present, there are more than 1000 system integrators, but a few local leaders such as Xinsong have formed. scale.

Foreign brands sell products in the form of cooperation with system integrators. Due to technical and historical reasons, international manufacturers have a higher degree of monopoly on key components. The two core components of robots are reducers and servo motors, which together account for 50% of the cost of robots. -60%, 75% of the market for reducers is monopolized by two Japanese manufacturers, and 90% of the market for high-precision AC servo motors is monopolized by international manufacturers. Although there are manufacturers such as Huazhong CNC, Lanzhou Electric, and Shili Motor, there is a big gap between scale and technical strength.

The localization of the robot industry is a major trend in the industry. In the development plan of the intelligent equipment field, emphasis is placed on the development and breakthrough of technologies related to industrial robots and corresponding key components (such as servo systems and reducers). The forthcoming "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of Industrial Robot Industry" will provide financial support for the development of industrial robots and key components through the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's high-end CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing equipment technology special projects (04 special projects) and intelligent manufacturing development projects. .

Focus on three stocks

Guangbo shares (002103): The company has successfully developed "robot" products in recent days, with a daily output of more than 30 skilled workers. Fully automatic folder manufacturing machine, this widely developed machine can produce 120 folders per minute, with a daily production capacity of more than 30 skilled workers, and saves 3 million yuan compared with similar imported equipment, but the technical parameters are Not inferior.

At present, the first stage of the “machine substitution” has been basically completed. Through the production process transformation and the use of new equipment, the machine basically replaces the labor-intensive bottleneck process, the automatic one machine replaces the single machine production, and the block operation mode shifts to the flow operation. After the completion of the “machine substitution” program of Guangbo Group, it is estimated that one-fourth of the labor can be saved, and the labor productivity of some processes can be increased by 50% to 5 times, and the product quality is improved by 3% to 5%.

Shanhe Intelligent (002097): The world's top engineering machinery event "The 30th German International Engineering Machinery, Mining Machinery, Building Materials Machinery, Industrial Vehicles and Parts Expo (Bauma2013)", perfected at the International Convention and Exhibition Center in Munich, Germany on April 21, 2013 Close. The SWE ROB intelligent electric excavation robot independently developed by Shanhe Intelligent is like a dancing elf stretching posture, dancing, smooth excavation movement, flexible walking and perfect handling, attracting the attention of many audiences. At the BMW Expo in Germany, Shanhe Intelligent SWE ROB is also the only Chinese manufacturer to perform machine action demonstrations and performances at the BMW Show in Germany.

Soft Controls (02073): Foxconn will build a robotics industrial park in Hanan Industrial New Town this year to produce 1 million robots instead of artificial labor. After the completion of the industrial park, 10 domestic and foreign robot companies will be the first to settle in. According to the soft control shares, the company is Foxconn's robot business supplier, mainly providing injection molding robots for Foxconn, accounting for about 50% of Foxconn's robot business.

According to public information, Qingdao Kejie Automation Equipment Co., Ltd. is a holding subsidiary of Soft Control Co., Ltd., which is dedicated to the R&D, manufacturing and sales of automation solutions with robots and robotics as the core. According to the official website of the company, Foxconn, BYD, Volkswagen, Toyota, Midea and other international brands are the mainstream users of Kejie. As of last year, Foxconn used more than 5,000 Kodak robots.

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