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The market believes that although China Shipping Development (600026) has partially locked up the coastal bulk freight rates, the company still has some of its spot capacity, so the company will become the biggest beneficiary of the rise in coastal bulk freight rates.
Temperature drop is the main reason for the rise According to the analysis of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the recent strong cold air has rapidly moved south, affecting most of China's regions successively. With strong winds, local regions have cooled to 12 to 14 degrees Celsius, and cooling has made coal demand robust. Although the downstream power plants have a certain amount of inventory, the overall inventory layout is ahead of schedule. The downstream power plants have recently increased their reserve of coal. The increase in coal demand naturally leads to a sharp increase in coal freight rates.
According to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the coastal coal transportation index on October 27 reached 2387.9 points, up 25.424% from the previous week. The coastal coal transportation index on October 20 was 1903.86 points, which was 17.75% higher than the previous week. In two weeks, the increase rate was 43.18%. On October 27, the coal freight rate from Huanghua Port to Shanghai was 77 yuan/ton, and on October 20, the freight rate was 55 yuan/ton, up 33.207%.
The low point of coastal bulk freight rates appeared on August 4th, when the China Coastal Bulk Freight Index was 1141 points. Compared with the current 1875 points, the coastal bulk freight index increased at 64 in three months. %the above. On August 4, the coal freight rate from Huanghua Port to Shanghai was only 29 yuan/ton, and the current freight rate of 77 yuan/ton has achieved an increase of more than 165%.
Donghui Securities analyst Zhang Hui said that generally the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for coal transportation. Coastal bulk freight rates, especially coal and food prices, are basically expected to rise in the market. “But I did not expect this year to rise earlier than in previous years. More embarrassing."
In addition, due to the influence of cold air, there is a certain pressure on the Hong Kong ships, which has led to short-term tension in the coastal bulk shipping capacity. Moreover, the price of coal has been rising recently. The demand for coal will increase in the Asian Games held in Guangdong and will eventually promote the coastal areas. The constant rise in bulk freight rates.
The most obvious benefit of China Shipping Development According to Bohai Securities’s Ma Zhefeng’s analysis, due to the strong cyclical nature of shipping stocks and uncertain future expectations, shipping stocks underperformed the broader market recently, but the rise in coastal bulk freight rates will create trading opportunities for China Shipping.
China Shipping Development has advantages in the coastal bulk cargo transportation. The company generally signs a COA contract with the shipper (a domestic coastal bulk cargo contract), adopts the form of “insured price is not insured,†and adopts a price-locking method to avoid a sharp increase in freight rates. The risk of volatility.
Ma Zhefeng believes that in addition to signing contracts for some of the coastal bulk carriers, China Shipping Development still has some bulk carriers engaged in spot shipping operations. These spot businesses will benefit significantly from the rising freight rates in the coastal bulk cargo market. The current rise in coastal bulk freight rates will increase the overall level of coastal bulk freight rates this year and will play a positive role in the company’s 2011 COA contract negotiations.
According to estimates of Donghai Securities Zhang Hui, the current average of coastal bulk freight rates has increased by more than 5% compared with the COA contract freight rates of China Shipping Development. If the freight rate of coastal bulk freight prices continues, the company's freight rates and COA contract Both will benefit.
According to data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on October 27, the China Coastal Bulk Freight Index closed at 1,875 points, up 20% from the previous week, and setting a new freight rate this year. At the same time, coastal coal and grain prices rose sharply last week, and coal and grain prices rose by more than 25% from the previous week.